23 July 2008

Not a false start (I hope)


The KLCI was surprisingly strong throughout the day today and closed at 1,139 with a hefty rise of 30 points or 2.7%. The volume of 656m shares was also considered high since there was minimal participation by the retailers. The current financial crisis in the US, weakening world economy, high inflation and local political uncertainties etc have so far managed to keep retailers away from the market. The rise today was attributable to major gains in the US and Asian markets after a few large drop in the crude oil prices for the past 4 days of trading. The rise of major world markets of late have given an "impression" that the stock markets may have seen a temporary bottom after the Fannie/Freddie's financial crisis reemerged last week. This notion holds true as Chart wise, some of the market's daily indicators as discussed earlier this week are showing a temporary base has been formed and prices are moving up again. Above charts are the daily MACDs of S&P 500, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng and KLCI which show an early sign of positive "crossover" which may lead the indices to head higher in the short term. However, other slower indicators like daily DMI/ADX, MMA etc have yet to confirm the short term uptrend. Their confirmation will come in if the market continues to do well in the next few trading sessions. Having said that, as noted previously, there are bound to have ups and downs even in a "long term downtrend" market that we are experiencing now.
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If the KLCI has started to turn positve for the short term, what is the trend for the stocks in general? To find out, I selected twenty stocks each from today's trading sorted by Top Volume, Top Gainers and Top Losers. Using the selections, I look at their charts basing only on the Daily MACD only. Below are my findings:

Top Volume(12 out of 20)

12 short term uptrend stocks (Airasia, MRCB, Resort, Gamuda, AMMB, PJI, Bornoil, Scomi, Ramunia, Tebrau, IJM & Starreit)

Top Gainers(15 out of 20)

15 short term uptrend stocks (Bursa, Commerz, Tanjong, Genting, LCL, Parkson, JTInter, Maybank, MAS, MISC, PetDag, Litrak, RHBCap, PBB-F & PBB)

Top Losers(9 out of 20)

9 short term uptrend stocks (DLady, MPI, Ipmuda, Sunrise, Atrium, Asiatic, Shang, Jtiasa and SapInd). Interestingly, the volume is very low for these stocks and as such may not be advisable to buy these stocks for trading purposes.

From the above, Chart wise, it seems that the underlying shares have seen their temporary bottom and are looking to rise again in the short term. Traders may come in the market, if not already in for now to profit from the trend. The only hope now is that this current rise is not a "false start" because if it is so, we may have to go back to the starting line or a few steps before the starting line again!

Warning! Please access your investment/trade objective before you buy/sell a stock. Always remember to have and entry and exit plan ready. Do your own research for the stocks you wanted to buy/sell. Do not take tips from others unless you are a waiter or waitress!!

* Yahoo Finance: Nouriel Roubini, NYU Professor and Chairman of RGE Monitor says the US government will ultimately need to spend more than USD1T to save Fannie/Freddie as compared to government's estimate of USD25-100b.

* Bloomberg: China's stockpile of unsold new vehicles rose about 50% in the 6 months to June, hitting a four year high, as automakers expanded production and sales growth slowed" An indication that slower growth in China is indeed slowing consumers spending.


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