28 October 2008

Technical Analysis - October 28 2008


S&P500 (877, last week 941 or -6.8% w.o.w )

The market rebounded for only a day on Monday and falters throughout the week. The oversold position of the index continues during the week. Will the long overdue technical rebound comes in this week? The index may find support at 850 and 768(6 year’s low) while resistance is at 960 and 1,000.

KLSE CI (859, last week 905 or -5.08% w.ow)

The daily and weekly technical indicators remained weak. The technical rebound did not materialised. The daily/weekly indicators remained in an oversold position. The index is expected to trade between 750 and 900.

HangSeng (12,618, last week 14,554 or -13.3% w.o.w )

The index was sold down heavily during last week. The daily indicators are all in a negative position. A technical rebound that was expected 2 weeks ago did not materialised. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory. Support is seen at 10,900 and resistances are at 13,200 and 14,000.

Nikkei 225 (7,649, last week 8,694 or -12.0% w.ow)

The technical rebound was short lived. The index was sold down heavily during last week. The daily/weekly indicators are still very weak. The support is seen at 7,500(5 year‘s low) and resistance are at 8,200 and 9,500.

* What a day it was yesterday while we were on Deepavali holidays. For the record, Hang Seng went down 12.7%, Japan closed at a 26-year low, Ukraine will get a bailout of USD16.5b from IMF, Philippines and Thailand stock markets were suspended late afternoon, South Korea cuts interest rate by 75 basis point and Won was at a 10 year low.

* Thankfully markets rebounded back today. HK went up 14.35% , Msia recovered from a -58 points to close -27 points, Japan went up 6.4%. But will Roubini's prediction comes true that global financial markets could be closed for a week or two due to the current global financial turmoil?
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* No more further M&A by Lee Ka-shing until further notice.......?

* The WSJ: Now Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan's largest bank is seeking USD10.7b in new capital.

* Japan's government is set to intervene on Yen's surge, first time since late 2003 due to unwinding of yen carry trades and as a safe heaven. The yen has climbed to a 13 year peak against the dollar and is at an all time high against the AUD.

* Reuters: Thailand's stock market president says she has no plans to support the stock market.

* Vietnam's inflation rate eased to 26.7% in October as global oil and commodity prices fell but remains one of the highest in Asia. The CPI has now fallen for 2 consecutive months with a high of 28.3% in August.



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