17 November 2008

Technical Analysis - November 17 2008


S&P500 (873, last week 931 or -6.2% w.o.w )

Due to some heavy sell down during last week, the daily indicators like MACD and MACD Histogram have weakened substantially but continued to stay slightly above water during the week. To make matter worse, the daily Parabolic SAR shows a selling signal 3 trading days ago. As noted last week, the daily ADX and the DMIs are not positive yet. For the weekly readings, the indicators continued to show bearishness.
If the index continues to show weakness in the next 2 sessions, it will turn the daily indicators into selling mode again. As mentioned weeks ago, the index will have an uphill task to recover and it will be good if it could form a short term bottom around 850 to 950 levels, before going up further. Support is around 800 and resistance at 950.

KLSE CI (882, last week 894 or -1.34% w.ow)

The daily MACD and Parabolic SAR are still positive during the week. However, the daily ADX and DMIs do not show any bullish signal yet. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory. The immediate task for the index is to determine a short term bottom and ideally it should be at 800-850 levels. If the S&P500 index was to turn negative in the next 2 sessions, the index will without doubt follow suit. The index is expected to trade between 830 and 950.

HangSeng (13,543, last week 14,243 or -4.91% w.o.w )

Despite heavy selling during last week, similar to KLSE CI and Nikkei 225 technical charts, the daily indicators like MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR continues to register a bullish signal. The daily ADX and the DMIs have not turned positive yet. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory. If the S&P500 index was to turn negative in the next 2 sessions, the index will without doubt follows. Like the other indices, the HangSeng index has plenty of work to do and it is best if it will be able to form short term bottoms around 11,000 to 13,000. Support is seen at 13,000 and resistance at 15,500.

Nikkei 225 (8,462, last week 8,583 or -1.41% w.ow)

The daily indicators like MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR continues to register a bullish signal. However, the weekly indicators continue to show weakness. Like other indices, the Nikkei needs to find its short term bottom and preferably it should be at levels 7,500 and 8,300.
The index will likely take the cue from the S&P500 for the next direction. The daily index has plenty of work cut out and it is best to regain some strong support at levels mentioned above. The index is expected to trade between 8,200 and 9,500.

* Japan is officially in recession after registering an annualised fall of 0.4% in the 3Q GDP growth (2nd Q -0.3%). The last recession was in 2001. The news follow earlier official announcements of recession in affected countries egs Singapore, NZ, Euro Zone and HK.

* Green Packet's 3Q net loss was RM10.3m. Hwang DBS Vickers cuts target to RM0.53 from RM0.70. It foresees company remaining in the red for FY08-FY09. The share price closed at RM0.73 at 5.00pm today.

* China Daily: Unemployment on the rise. Statistics in China showed that about six million students will graduate from universities and colleges next year and some 800,000 of this year's graduates are still awaiting job offers.

No comments: