23 June 2008

Technical Analysis - June 23 2008


S&P500 Chart (1,318, last week 1,360 or -3.08% w.o.w)

The daily charts continue to weaken. For weekly charts, MACD is very close to have a negative hook down. The MACD Hist however is positive. The index has failed to support 1,360 and below the 200 day exponential moving average; as such the index has failed in staying on the uptrend channel. There may be an attempt to stay above the 200 day exponential moving average of 1,317 but the downward pressure may be too great. The best it could manage now is to stay sideways. The index is expected to trade between 1,282 and 1,370.

KLSE CI (1,207, last week 1,229 or - 1.8% w.ow)

The daily charts continue to weaken. The weekly MACD and MACD Hist are negative. The index was not able to support 1,210 and as a result is facing tremendous downward pressure ahead. It went to a low of 1,189 during the week. The index is expected to trade between 1,150 and 1,250.

HangSeng (22,746, last week 22,592 or +0.7% w.o.w )

The daily charts continue to weaken. The weekly MACD and MACD Hist are negative. The Index need to stay above 22,333 to avoid falling into the downtrend channel. Immediate support is at 22,333 and 21,600 while resistance is at 23,600.

Nikkei 225 (13,942, last week 13,974 or -0.2% w.ow)

The daily charts have weakened further. For weekly charts, MACD is still in a positive crossover and improved to -170 and the MACD Hist is positive. The DMI (+ & -) however, has a hook down while the ADX has weakened at 21. The index is bunching up closely on the uptrend line but the weakening of daily indicators would pressure the index to trade between 13,800 to 14,600. If 13,800 is broken, the immediate support is at 13,500.
.
* Jeddah: Producers and consumers do not seemed to agree over the core factors driving steep oil price hikes. In the meeting, Saudi has agreed to pump more than 9.7m barrels per day if market requires.(Total world wide oil production is 85m barrels per day). Saudi blames oil speculators and not supply constraint as the main problem. US on the other hand blames supply constraint. Why can't they set up a commission to investigate recent futures trading contracts for crude oil and give a more constructive explanation to us rather than arguing until the cow comes home??
.
* Candle in the wind....becomes candle in the sun. Zimbabwe's opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has pulled out of Zimbabwe's presidential runoff this Friday citing the election was no longer credible and the loss of life among his supporters was simply too high. Why give up only now? This is one of the few places in the world that a single person can destroy the future of a country for own self benefit....poor helpless Zimbabweans....what can we do to help?
.
* TheStar: Singapore and Hong Kong are offering incentives and ammending laws respectively to compete with Malaysia in a USD1.3T global Islamic bonds. We better not walk or run from now, we have to fly as we may be overtaken by these aggressive and performance centric countries soon.

No comments: