01 September 2008

Technical Analysis -September 1


S&P500 (1,283, last week 1,292 or -0.7% w.o.w)

The daily MACD, managed to cling on a weak positive despite under going a brief negative hook down during last week. The daily DMI(+ and -) also managed to maintain its uptrend too. The weekly charts eg MACD has for the first time managed to have a positive cross over supported by its weekly Histogram. It is just at the preliminary stage but if the index continues to improve further, there is a likelihood some mid/long term investors may return to the market. The index really needs to stay above 1,300 for this to happen. The index is likely to trade between 1,260 and 1,330. Incidentally, the resistance level of 1,330 is the index’s 200 day-ema.

KLSE CI (1,101, last week 1,086 or +1.31% w.ow)

The strong closing on Friday pushed the daily charts into an early positive uptrend again after a hook down on August 12.
The question now is whether this technical rebound could turn the charts into a positive uptrend. The weekly charts are still weak and as long as it cannot break 1-115 to 1,120, the market is not out of the woods yet. The index is expected to trade between 1,050 and 1,150.

HangSeng (21,262 , last week 20,392 or +4.3% w.o.w ).

The daily index, similar to the KLCI also register an early positive uptrend during last week after a hook down on August 7.
The question now is whether this technical rebound could turn the charts into a positive uptrend. The weekly charts are still weak. Immediate support is at 20,500 while resistance is at 22,500.

Nikkei 225 (13,073, last week 12,666 or +3.2% w.ow)

The daily MACD and DMI(+ and -) registers an early positive hook up due to a strong technical rebound last week.
The question like the ones posted to the KLCI and HangSeng is whether the technical rebound could turn the charts into a positive uptrend. The weekly MACD are still in a negative hooked down position although some improvements were seen last week. The index is likely to trade between 12,500 to 13,500. As noted previously, the index face major resistance at 13,300.

* Deja vu feeling No 1 - Sichuan earthquakes. Another earthquake of 6.1 magnitude hit Sichuan last Saturday killing at least 32 people and destroy more than 250,000 homes.
* Deja vu feeling No 2 - Hurricane Katrina and Gustav. Arrival of Gustav today in New Orleans? What will be its impact economically? Would it be like the 2nd Sichuan earthquake mentioned above, ie milder and with little economical impact?
* Happy belated 51st Merdeka to all Malaysian! We need to continue improving ourselves in education, skill and all other social aspects of life to be world beaters that are envied by others. Let us be able to reason, to rationalise, to think and to analyse critically why we are here today and what stage we wish to go as an individual and as a nation tomorrow and in the near future.

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