29 September 2008

Technical Analysis - September 29 2008


S&P500 (1,213, last week 1,255 or -3.35% w.o.w )

The index had another tough up and down week. However, despite that, the daily MACD managed to clinch closer to a positive uptrend, supported by the parabolic SAR. The index needs to continue its push up further if it wants to push back its daily indicators into the positive region again and avoid any fall back. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory. The index may find support at 1,200 and 1,185 while resistance is at 1,250.

KLSE CI (1,021, last week 1,026 or -0.49% w.ow)

The index was lacklustre the whole week. Although most of the daily indicators remained to be weak, the MACD and its Histogram had a slight positive crossover a few days ago. As noted last week, the index needs to work overdrive to turn the daily indicators to a positive position to avoid any broken uptrend. The weekly charts continued to be weak. The index is expected to trade between 1,000 and 1,070.

HangSeng (18,682, last week 19,328 or -3.34% w.o.w )

Despite dropping more than the KLCI and Nikkei during the week, some of the daily indicators like MACD and Parabolic SAR are showing positive signals. The Daily MACD had a positive crossover a few days back but are moving horizontally indicating the market needs to move up very soon to avoid a fall back. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory. There is a common unease that the index may succumb to selling pressure this week/near future as there is a gap to be filled between 17,800 and 18,600 or about 800 points between them. Supports are seen at 18,500 and 17,800 while resistance is at 20,500 and also at 20,900.

Nikkei 225 (11,893, last week 11,921 or –0.23% w.ow)

Like the other markets, the daily indicators are improving and it will need further improvement from the index to maintain the momentum. The Index has much work to do in order to have any positive readings in its daily indicators. The weekly charts are still weak. The support is seen at 11,700 and resistance is at 12,500.

* Newsweek: China's Premier Wen Jiabo: US crisis to hit China. " Ten years ago, China-US trade stood at only USD102.6b. Today the figure has soared to USD302b, a 1.5 fold increase. A shrinking US demand would certainly have an impact on China's exports".

* Bloomberg: The House may consider the USD700b bank rescue package tonight and Senate will vote by Oct 1.

* Bank woes everywhere! (1) Fortis-the largest Belgian financial services firm received USD16.3b rescue from Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg after investor confidence in the bank evaporated last week. (2) UK Bradford and Bingley- Britain's largest lender to landlords may be taken over by another bank or nationalised today. (3) Similar to Wachovia. (4) AIG eyes sales of 15 more business to repay USD85b US government loans.

* Maybank now gets discounts from Temasek and Kookmin Bank- why bargain so hard before this?

* Japan's government today approves an extra budget to fund a USD17b economic package.

* South Korea's won fall to a 5 year low with its intraday high of 1 US: 1,198.3 Kr

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