18 December 2008

One last try


They say all of us must have a positive attitude towards life and whatever we do. We should not give up hope even if we have only the last minute to live. Seems that this "never give up" attitude is also being portrayed in the financial markets lately, see Weekly MACD. As evident from the charts attached above (HangSeng, KLCI, Nikkei 225 and S&P500), there were not many occasions where the Weekly MACD have a positive cross over during the year 2008. In fact, for most markets, there was only once this year (except for S&P500 which has twice). Even though there was a positive crossover during that period, the markets were quick to succumb to selling pressure. Currently we are seeing the 2nd attempt (3rd for the S&P500) of the markets, lead by HangSeng to go for the final try for the year 2008. Will the markets close for the year with an uptrending pattern embracing a brand new 2009 and leave all the worries and hardships behind? Although I believe the uptrend to be short term in nature, it will not be easy to achieve. Lets watch them closely and keep our fingers crossed.

(refer here for 10 year analysis of Weekly MACDs)

* Make some money while the sun shines? There are some selected trending stocks which may do well in this uptrend: young trend-Ramunia, Lion Ind, TMI, IJM, Sapuracrest , mature trend-IOI, Genting, Gamuda, Zelan, Kinsteel, AMMB, Sime.

* CNN: Oil sinks to 4 1/2 year to USD40.06 per barrel after OPEC decided to cut production by 2.2m barrels a day starting next month.

* BT: Macquarie: Malaysia to grow 1% next year.

* Morgan Stanley posts USD2.2b quarter losses.

* Bloomberg: Obama said to be weighing a stimulus spending plan exceeding USD850b.

* Bloomberg: British Airways, Qantas end merger talks after failing to agree on terms.


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