15 December 2008

Technical Analysis - December 15 2008


S&P500 (880, last week 876 or +0.46% w.o.w )

Despite being flattish during the week, the daily indicators continued to register uptrend. For the weekly readings, the indicators are still showing weaknesses but the MACD is showing signs of bottoming. Support is around 850 and resistance at 960.

KLSE CI (852, last week 838 or +1.7% w.ow)

The daily MACD still remains in the positive as the index bounced up after touching the crucial level of decision making during the week. The MACD Histogram is also positive as it tries to go above the 20-day ema of 860. However, the Parabolic SAR continues to issue a negative signal giving the market some mix signal.
There is a likelihood the index will be under pressure again as evident from the high daily stochastic oscillator at the end of Friday. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory but the MACD is showing signs of bottoming. The index is expected to trade between 835 and 900.

HangSeng (14,758, last week 13,846 or +6.6% w.o.w )

Perhaps one of the best looking indices chart in the world now, the daily indicators are doing well and strong. The daily MACD in particular is now above 0 level showing further improvement. The task of crossing above the 50-day ema, which is at 14,883 was achieved for a few sessions during the week but only to close below it on Friday.
As reflected in the stochastic oscillator, there could be some short term profit taking during this week. It would be interesting to see if the daily ADX and DMI indicators can show positive uptrend soon; a position it last register in late July. The weekly charts is also doing well, especially the MACD is nearing positive crossover, a situation not seen since April 2008. Support is seen at 14,000 and resistance at 15,500 and 16,000.

Nikkei 225 (8,236, last week 7,918 or +4.02% w.ow)

The daily indicators eg MACD and MACD Histogram remained positive thanks to the index which came back to life during the week. The Parabolic SAR recovers and continues to issue a positive signal four sessions ago. However, it is important to note as reflected in the stochastic oscillator, there could be some short term profit taking during this week. The weekly charts are still in a negative territory but showing signs of bottoming. The index is expected to trade between 7,500 and 9,000.

* Bloomberg: OPEC the producer of 42% of the world's oil may make the biggest supply cut in a decade to halt the plunge in crude prices.

* Bloomberg: Japanese business confidence plunges most in 34 years as recession deepens.

* BBC: Ecuador set to default in its interest payment of external debt. Refer here for details.

* BT: Citi: KLCI will trough at "the earliest" next quarter and sees corporate earnings falling 11% in 2009.

* FT.com: Pakistan to remove its controversial market floor introduced in August this year to prevent share prices from tumbling further after many months of decline.

* Thailand's opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva appointed as the country's 3rd PM in 4 months. Now Thaksin's supporters have surrounded the Parliament! Wonder whether they can secure the airport too this time?

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