19 January 2009

Technical Analysis - January 19 2009


S&P500 (850, last week 890 or -4.5% w.o.w )

The daily index has succumbed to selling pressure during last week. The Daily MACD, MACD Histogram, Guppy MMAs, Parabolic SAR and DMIs (+ve and –ve) are all showing negative already. However, we cannot discount a short term rebound during this week. For the weekly readings, the MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR are still positive but will eventually turned negative if the selling continues further. The weekly ADX trend and DMIs (+ve and –ve) are not bullish yet while Guppy MMAs is weakening. The market is at best range bound. Like others, the market is still stuck in a major downtrend channel created since November 2007. Support is around 800 and resistance at 890.

KLSE CI (896, last week 919 or -2.5% w.ow)

One of the remaining few markets that still have a positive gain for the year but this may not likely to last soon. The index is finding it hard to sit above the daily 50-day ema. The daily indicators are at a crossroad again with the MACD, Parabolic SAR, ADX trend and DMI (+ve and –ve) going into an early bearish tone. The weekly charts MACD and Parabolic SAR are still positive but will eventually turned negative if the selling continues further. The market will need to work hard to avoid indicators turning negative again. To be positive, the index needs to clear the 935 level (a 20-day ema) and as such will breakaway from the major downtrend channel created since January 2008. The index is expected to trade between 850 and 970.

HangSeng (13,256, last week 14,377 or -7.8% w.o.w )

The index is determined to go south again. All the daily indicators like Parabolic SAR, the daily MACD and MACD Histogram and Guppy MMAs are turning negative and will remained so unless the index goes up strongly this week. We could see a short term rebound this week. The weekly charts are still positive, especially the MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR but will eventually turned negative if the selling continues further. Support is seen at 12,600 and resistance at 15,000.

Nikkei 225 (8,230, last week 8,837 or -6.9% w.ow)

Similar with S&P500 and HangSeng, the index seems determined to go south again. However, we cannot discount a short term rebound during this week. All the daily indicators like Parabolic SAR, the daily MACD and MACD Histogram and Guppy MMAs are turning negative and will remained so unless the index goes up strongly this week. The weekly charts are still positive, especially the MACD, MACD Histogram and Parabolic SAR but will eventually turned negative if the selling continues further. Support is seen at 7,500 and resistance at 9,500.


* Bloomberg: China economy probably grew at slowest pace in 7 years as export slump.

* After ending 22 days of conflict leaving more than 1,200 Palestinians and 13 Israelis dead, Israel and Hamas has both declared victory?

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